Black Friday That Burns Profit: Why Stores Sell More but Earn Less

Polish retail is entering the hot season with record budgets and expectations. However, the increase in sales often doesn’t translate into higher profit. During Black Friday, many companies unknowingly lose their margin due to poorly set discounts, wrong purchasing decisions, rising delivery costs, and uncalculated payment methods. Financial expert for retail chains in Poland and Europe, CEO of ExpertHub, Mary Tchir, explains how to prepare for the season so that Black Friday becomes a day of profit — not financial exhaustion.

In 2024, Black Friday broke records again: the number of online transactions increased by as much as 53%, and according to tpay.com, the total transaction value grew by 136%. These are impressive results — but they don’t always translate into profit. Delivery, commission, and campaign costs are rising, and miscalculated discounts can completely erase the sales effect. That’s why today the key question is not “Will you sell more?” but “Will you actually make money on it?”

Stage 1: Preparation – before the discount fever begins

The first mistake happens long before the doors of the store open. Most companies plan discounts as a simple percentage — “-30% for everyone” — without checking whether this reduction even fits within their margin. As a result, some products are sold below cost, and the owner finds out only after the end of the month. Then comes the legal aspect. Many entrepreneurs don’t realize that under the Omnibus Directive, every discount must be calculated in relation to the lowest price in the past 30 days. Omitting this information in promotional communication can result not only in an inspection by the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK) but also in a loss of customer trust.

“Every discount should have its own ‘floor price’ — a limit below which we never go, regardless of market pressure,” explains Tchir.

Before the season starts, business owners should prepare a pricing policy and a promotional matrix, where each product category has a defined maximum discount. It’s also worth auditing all marketing materials and POS systems — before the authorities do.

Stage 2: During the sales – selling that really earns

When the sales start, emotions take over. The store is busy, systems buzz with order notifications — and that’s when companies start losing control over real profit.

The most common issue: blind discounts and logistical chaos. Retailers often forget that during the holiday season, transportation and delivery costs rise. Bigger packages, extra wrapping, carrier surcharges for peak season — all quietly eat away at the margin.

That’s why it’s worth setting an operational cost limit for each day of the promotion and monitoring it regularly — just like an ad budget. A simple breakdown helps: logistics cost, payment commissions, and discounts per order.

Another silent profit killer is Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payments. Store owners see growing baskets and higher conversion rates but forget that BNPL fees can be twice as high as card payments. Over a week, that means thousands of złotys less in cash.

Business owners should monitor the BNPL share in sales and set limits — for example, only for purchases above a certain amount — and compare real profitability between BNPL and card payments. It’s a simple way to keep your margin under control during the busiest sales period — before it disappears in costs.

Stage 3: After the season – profit doesn’t end on Black Friday

When the sales dust settles, many entrepreneurs breathe a sigh of relief. But for retailers, that’s when the real accounting begins. Two phenomena appear: “black holes” in payments (chargebacks and complaints) and the “toxic warehouse” — excess goods bought “just in case,” now blocking capital.

“The worst thing you can do after Black Friday is close the sales report and think the story is over,” warns Tchir. “Seasonal profit must be cleared of delayed costs — commissions, returns, and overstock. Only then can you see the real result.”

That’s why it’s best to plan three financial scenarios before launching the campaign:

• Base: sales at the level of last year,
• Promo: expected growth while keeping margin,
• High: aggressive growth with a reserved budget for surplus inventory and possible corrections.

This helps avoid the negative cash cycle — when your money sits in the warehouse instead of the account.

The biggest threat of Black Friday doesn’t lie in a lack of customers — but in a lack of control. Those without a plan for margin, logistics, and finances will sell a lot — but earn little. This season, the winners won’t be those who shout the loudest, but those who calculate the most precisely.

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About the Company

Expert HUB is a team of financial specialists who have been supporting e-commerce businesses across Poland and Europe for years. We help online store owners move from intuition-based decisions to strategies driven by data. Our mission is to reveal true profitability — not through abstract metrics, but through everyday business management. Thanks to our analyses, entrepreneurs regain control over their margin, see which channels and products truly generate profit, and which ones just drain the budget. The result? Steady growth, stronger cash flow, and confident decisions that translate into a competitive advantage.

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